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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Renan Barao won · SUB R3

Elo1378

Elo1373

Renan BaraovsMitch GagnonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:53

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsMitch Gagnon: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
Renan Barao has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Mitch Gagnon

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+800

(11%)

1378

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Mitch GagnonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13

vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14

SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14

vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16

vs Cole Smith · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricMitch Gagnon

3.78

Strikes / min

2.76

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.21

57%

Strike defense

61%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.16

91%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoMitch Gagnon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.3|Blue -5.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetMitch Gagnon

By target zone

30% acc · 49%

Head

42% acc · 55%

67% acc · 31%

Body

65% acc · 29%

92% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

32% acc · 58%

Distance

47% acc · 78%

78% acc · 42%

Clinch

81% acc · 22%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Mitch Gagnon rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:31

Knockdowns1

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:42

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 3Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control1:09

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 138

Sig Strikes

58 / 111

43.3%

Sig Str %

54.3%

64 / 143

Total Strikes

66 / 119

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 7

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:22

Ctrl Time

4:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mitch Gagnon	25 / 47	26 / 48	0 / 1	0
1	Renan Barao	17 / 52	18 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Mitch Gagnon	22 / 47	23 / 48	0 / 2	0
2	Renan Barao	25 / 52	27 / 54	0 / 1	0
3	Mitch Gagnon	11 / 17	17 / 23	0 / 4	0
3	Renan Barao	17 / 34	19 / 36	2 / 3	1

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Mitch Gagnon

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8