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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Renan Barao won · SUB R4

Elo1378

Elo1491

Renan BaraovsMichael McDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · Saturday, February 16, 2013London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

SUB · Round 4 · 3:57

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsMichael McDonald: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -295 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Michael McDonald

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1378

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Michael McDonald

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Torres · Apr 12

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13

SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16

KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricMichael McDonald

3.78

Strikes / min

2.69

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

57%

Strike defense

57%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.09

91%

Takedown defense

52%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoMichael McDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Michael McDonald(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -112.7|Blue +112.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetMichael McDonald

By target zone

29% acc · 78%

Head

28% acc · 100%

22% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

28% acc · 69%

Distance

23% acc · 69%

38% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 27%

63% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Michael McDonald rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:32

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:06

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:27

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:55

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 112

Sig Strikes

26 / 92

31.5%

Sig Str %

28.5%

43 / 121

Total Strikes

29 / 95

4 / 10

TDs

0 / 1

49.8%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael McDonald	10 / 26	13 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Renan Barao	10 / 26	17 / 34	2 / 3	0
2	Michael McDonald	6 / 27	6 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Renan Barao	10 / 30	10 / 30	1 / 1	0
3	Renan Barao	11 / 31	11 / 32	1 / 3	0
3	Michael McDonald	4 / 23	4 / 23	0 / 0	0
4	Renan Barao	5 / 25	5 / 25	0 / 3	1
4	Michael McDonald	6 / 16	6 / 16	0 / 1	0

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9