← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Luke Sanders won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1378

Elo1400

Renan BaraovsLuke SandersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Luke Sanders won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:01

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsLuke Sanders: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Luke Sanders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Luke Sanders enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Luke Sanders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Luke Sanders

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1378

Elo

1400

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Phillipe Nover · Sep 16

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Luke SandersL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andre Soukhamthath · Dec 17

vs Patrick Williams · Apr 18

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 18

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 20

vs Felipe Colares · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricLuke Sanders

3.78

Strikes / min

6.61

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

57%

Strike defense

50%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.71

91%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap+2.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoLuke Sanders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Luke Sanders(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.9|Blue +21.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetLuke Sanders

By target zone

30% acc · 25%

Head

45% acc · 67%

66% acc · 68%

Body

75% acc · 15%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

78% acc · 18%

By position

47% acc · 85%

Distance

49% acc · 87%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Luke Sanders rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Luke Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 78

Sig Strikes

39 / 75

48%

Sig Str %

51.5%

41 / 79

Total Strikes

41 / 78

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luke Sanders	25 / 48	27 / 51	0 / 1
1	Renan Barao	33 / 62	34 / 63	0 / 0
2	Luke Sanders	14 / 27	14 / 27	0 / 0
2	Renan Barao	7 / 16	7 / 16	0 / 0

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Luke Sanders

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8