← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · U-DEC R3

Elo1378

Elo1473

Renan BaraovsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · Sunday, May 29, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1378

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricJeremy Stephens

3.78

Strikes / min

3.13

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

57%

Strike defense

57%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.10

91%

Takedown defense

61%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.7|Blue +94.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

25% acc · 65%

Head

34% acc · 69%

44% acc · 16%

Body

64% acc · 13%

73% acc · 19%

Leg

63% acc · 18%

By position

29% acc · 88%

Distance

37% acc · 91%

63% acc · 12%

Clinch

83% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:02

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:32

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:54

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 137

Sig Strikes

55 / 140

31%

Sig Str %

36.7%

51 / 146

Total Strikes

73 / 158

2 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:28

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Stephens	8 / 31	12 / 35	0 / 1
1	Renan Barao	15 / 44	19 / 48	0 / 3
2	Jeremy Stephens	27 / 53	35 / 61	0 / 0
2	Renan Barao	11 / 40	12 / 42	1 / 4
3	Jeremy Stephens	20 / 56	26 / 62	0 / 0
3	Renan Barao	17 / 53	20 / 56	1 / 2

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27