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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Renan Barao won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1378

Elo1427

Renan BaraovsEddie WinelandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:35

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsEddie Wineland: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(78.3%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eddie Wineland has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Eddie Wineland

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1378

Elo

1427

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Eddie WinelandL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18

KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20

KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21

KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricEddie Wineland

3.78

Strikes / min

3.40

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

57%

Strike defense

68%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.34

91%

Takedown defense

86%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoEddie Wineland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Eddie Wineland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetEddie Wineland

By target zone

48% acc · 57%

Head

12% acc · 45%

100% acc · 18%

Body

57% acc · 36%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

67% acc · 18%

By position

61% acc · 89%

Distance

21% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Eddie Wineland rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 45

Sig Strikes

11 / 53

60.5%

Sig Str %

17.5%

29 / 46

Total Strikes

11 / 53

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eddie Wineland	10 / 46	10 / 46	0 / 0
1	Renan Barao	21 / 33	22 / 34	0 / 1
2	Eddie Wineland	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 0
2	Renan Barao	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 0

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16