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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brian Kelleher won · U-DEC R3

Elo1378

Elo1489

Renan BaraovsBrian KelleherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · Saturday, February 24, 2018Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Brian Kelleher won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsBrian Kelleher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
Renan Barao has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Brian Kelleher

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1378

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Phillipe Nover · Sep 16

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricBrian Kelleher

3.78

Strikes / min

3.31

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.68

91%

Takedown defense

60%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoBrian Kelleher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -111.0|Blue +111.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetBrian Kelleher

By target zone

47% acc · 67%

Head

42% acc · 79%

63% acc · 23%

Body

62% acc · 14%

61% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

47% acc · 82%

Distance

44% acc · 91%

88% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Brian Kelleher rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:05

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:05

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:28Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes62

Takedowns0

Control0:03

61Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 228

Sig Strikes

94 / 203

50%

Sig Str %

46.7%

134 / 247

Total Strikes

145 / 256

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:13

Ctrl Time

4:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brian Kelleher	17 / 45	31 / 60	0 / 0
1	Renan Barao	30 / 65	38 / 73	0 / 0
2	Brian Kelleher	16 / 28	45 / 58	1 / 3
2	Renan Barao	24 / 46	31 / 54	0 / 1
3	Brian Kelleher	61 / 130	69 / 138	0 / 1
3	Renan Barao	62 / 117	65 / 120	0 / 1

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17