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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Andre Ewell won · S-DEC R3

Elo1378

Elo1414

Renan BaraovsAndre EwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Andre Ewell won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsAndre Ewell: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Andre Ewell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andre Ewell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andre Ewell (53.5%).
Andre Ewell has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Andre Ewell

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1378

Elo

1414

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Phillipe Nover · Sep 16

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Andre EwellL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Martinez · Feb 20

vs Irwin Rivera · Sep 20

vs Chris Gutierrez · Feb 21

KOvs Julio Arce · Jul 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricAndre Ewell

3.78

Strikes / min

4.28

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.87

57%

Strike defense

51%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.36

91%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoAndre Ewell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Andre Ewell(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.0|Blue +36.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -46.8|Blue +46.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetAndre Ewell

By target zone

38% acc · 52%

Head

39% acc · 77%

48% acc · 27%

Body

69% acc · 21%

60% acc · 20%

Leg

33% acc · 2%

By position

32% acc · 59%

Distance

43% acc · 98%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

94% acc · 36%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Andre Ewell rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control3:51

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Andre Ewell edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:05

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andre Ewell edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 101

Sig Strikes

53 / 123

44.3%

Sig Str %

43%

67 / 124

Total Strikes

57 / 128

3 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

75%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:56

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Ewell	4 / 9	7 / 13	1 / 1	0
1	Renan Barao	19 / 28	25 / 34	2 / 4	2
2	Andre Ewell	20 / 46	21 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Renan Barao	8 / 26	25 / 43	1 / 1	0
3	Andre Ewell	29 / 68	29 / 68	0 / 0	0
3	Renan Barao	17 / 47	17 / 47	0 / 0	0

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Andre Ewell

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9