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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Reinier de Ridder won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1525

Reinier de Ridder editorial illustration

Elo1544

Reinier de RiddervsBo NickalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Reinier de Ridder won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:53

Style matchupReinier de Ridder: WrestlervsBo Nickal: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Bo Nickal wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Reinier de Ridder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bo Nickal at -370 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bo Nickal enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Bo Nickal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Reinier de Ridder has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Bo Nickal has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bo Nickal has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Reinier de Ridder

Red Corner

Bo Nickal

Blue Corner

+295

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-370

(79%)

1525

Elo

1544

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Reinier de RidderL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jan 25

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 25

KOvs Brendan Allen · Oct 25

vs Caio Borralho · Mar 26

latest

Bo NickalW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Val Woodburn · Jul 23

SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 24

vs Paul Craig · Nov 24

KOvs Rodolfo Vieira · Nov 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Reinier de RidderMetricBo Nickal

2.47

Strikes / min

3.35

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.07

46%

Strike defense

59%

2.56

TDs / 15 min

3.10

40%

Takedown defense

100%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap+1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Reinier de RidderBo Nickal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Reinier de Ridder(6 fights)Bo Nickal(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.6|Blue +18.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Reinier de RidderTargetBo Nickal

By target zone

50% acc · 41%

Head

15% acc · 25%

93% acc · 59%

Body

80% acc · 50%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

47% acc · 32%

Distance

21% acc · 38%

88% acc · 68%

Clinch

71% acc · 63%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Reinier de Ridder rounds

even

Bo Nickal rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:52

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 2Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:17

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 32

Sig Strikes

8 / 21

63.5%

Sig Str %

36.5%

91 / 104

Total Strikes

24 / 40

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

2:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bo Nickal	2 / 6	17 / 24	1 / 1
1	Reinier de Ridder	5 / 10	43 / 49	0 / 2
2	Bo Nickal	6 / 15	7 / 16	0 / 0
2	Reinier de Ridder	17 / 22	48 / 55	0 / 1

Reinier de Ridder

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6

Bo Nickal

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6