← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Rei Tsuruya won · Submission R1

Elo1519

Elo1448

Rei TsuruyavsLuis GuruleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 30, 2026Macau, China

Official fight result

Rei Tsuruya won

Submission · Round 1 · 3:19

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Luis Gurule

Style matchupRei Tsuruya: WrestlervsLuis Gurule: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rei Tsuruya wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Rei Tsuruya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luis Gurule has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rei Tsuruya has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rei Tsuruya

Red Corner

Luis Gurule

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1519

Elo

1448

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rei Tsuruya

oldest →

vs Carlos Hernandez · Jun 24

vs Joshua Van · Mar 25

latest

Luis Gurule

oldest →

KOvs Ode Osbourne · Apr 25

vs Jesus Aguilar · Sep 25

vs Alden Coria · Feb 26

DECvs Daniel Barez · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rei TsuruyaMetricLuis Gurule

2.24

Strikes / min

4.47

2.01

Strikes absorbed / min

4.74

42%

Strike defense

59%

5.06

TDs / 15 min

0.58

50%

Takedown defense

58%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.23evenly matched on net striking-0.27

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rei Tsuruya(3 fights)Luis Gurule(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.8|Blue -70.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rei TsuruyaTargetLuis Gurule

By target zone

65% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

38% acc · 18%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

74% acc · 82%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rei Tsuruya rounds

even

Luis Gurule rounds

Round 1Rei Tsuruya edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:17

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 27

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

62%

Sig Str %

50%

20 / 30

Total Strikes

1 / 2

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luis Gurule	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Rei Tsuruya	17 / 27	20 / 30	1 / 3	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 48% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked May 29, 2026, 3:48 PM UTC · never rewritten

Rei Tsuruya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Luis Gurule

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5