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Flyweight
3 Rounds
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Elo1518
Elo1503

Rei TsuruyavsJesus AguilarUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 30, 2026Macau, China

Fight begins in
Style matchupRei Tsuruya: WrestlervsJesus Aguilar: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rei Tsuruya threatens submissions; Jesus Aguilar has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Jesus Aguilar has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rei Tsuruya has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rei Tsuruya
Red Corner
VS
Jesus Aguilar
Blue Corner
-295
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
1518
Elo
1503
24
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
172.72 cm
Reach
157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rei TsuruyaW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · Jun 24
L
vs Joshua Van · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Luis Gurule · May 26
W
SUBvs Kevin Borjas · Aug 26
latest
Jesus Aguilar
oldest →
W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24
W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24
L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25
W
vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25
L
vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rei TsuruyaMetricJesus Aguilar
2.24
Strikes / min
2.54
2.01
Strikes absorbed / min
2.29
42%
Strike defense
61%
5.06
TDs / 15 min
1.52
50%
Takedown defense
45%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.25
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Rei Tsuruya(3 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.9|Blue -15.9
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +364.0|Blue -364.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: Submission.

KO / TKO17%

Historical win share: Jesus Aguilar earned 25% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission83%

Historical win share: Rei Tsuruya earned 67% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Rei Tsuruya

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights7