Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rei Tsuruya threatens submissions; Jesus Aguilar has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Jesus Aguilar has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rei Tsuruya has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rei Tsuruya
oldest →W
vs Carlos Hernandez · Jun 24W
SUBvs Luis Gurule · May 26 Jesus Aguilar
oldest →W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rei TsuruyaMetricJesus Aguilar
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.25
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rei Tsuruya(3 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +16.6|Blue -16.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +364.0|Blue -364.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Method Projection
Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: Submission.
Historical win share: Jesus Aguilar earned 25% of wins by KO/TKO.
Historical win share: Rei Tsuruya earned 50% of wins by submission.
Both fighters frequently end fights early.
