Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rei Tsuruya won · U-DEC R3

Elo1519

Elo1489

Rei TsuruyavsCarlos HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rei Tsuruya won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRei Tsuruya: WrestlervsCarlos Hernandez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rei Tsuruya wins(79.8%)

Actual result: Rei Tsuruya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rei Tsuruya threatens submissions; Carlos Hernandez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Carlos Hernandez has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rei Tsuruya

Red Corner

Carlos Hernandez

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1519

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rei Tsuruya

oldest →

vs Joshua Van · Mar 25

SUBvs Luis Gurule · May 26

latest

Carlos Hernandez

oldest →

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Jan 23

vs Denys Bondar · Jun 23

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 23

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Nov 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rei TsuruyaMetricCarlos Hernandez

2.24

Strikes / min

3.83

2.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

42%

Strike defense

50%

5.06

TDs / 15 min

1.56

50%

Takedown defense

65%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rei TsuruyaCarlos Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rei Tsuruya(3 fights)Carlos Hernandez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.7|Blue -30.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rei TsuruyaTargetCarlos Hernandez

By target zone

50% acc · 88%

Head

30% acc · 44%

100% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

17% acc · 12%

Distance

35% acc · 50%

67% acc · 12%

Clinch

80% acc · 25%

76% acc · 76%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rei Tsuruya rounds

even

Carlos Hernandez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control1:16

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Rei Tsuruya edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:42

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carlos Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:21

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:23Control

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 32

Sig Strikes

16 / 32

52.7%

Sig Str %

73%

62 / 83

Total Strikes

26 / 45

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:19

Ctrl Time

4:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Hernandez	8 / 23	8 / 23	1 / 1
1	Rei Tsuruya	2 / 12	9 / 20	2 / 4
2	Carlos Hernandez	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0
2	Rei Tsuruya	13 / 17	26 / 35	1 / 1
3	Carlos Hernandez	6 / 7	16 / 20	0 / 1
3	Rei Tsuruya	2 / 3	27 / 28	0 / 3

Rei Tsuruya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Carlos Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7