Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Regina Tarin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1518

Elo1486

Regina TarinvsErnesta KareckaiteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Regina Tarin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRegina Tarin: Pressure fightervsErnesta Kareckaite: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Regina Tarin wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Regina Tarin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Regina Tarin at +116 American odds

+$116 profit

$216 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ernesta Kareckaite has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Regina Tarin (53.5%).
Ernesta Kareckaite has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Regina Tarin

Red Corner

Ernesta Kareckaite

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-136

(58%)

1518

Elo

1486

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Regina TarinNo prior UFC fights on record.

Ernesta Kareckaite

oldest →

vs Dione Barbosa · May 24

vs Nicolle Caliari · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Regina TarinMetricErnesta Kareckaite

7.60

Strikes / min

7.28

7.00

Strikes absorbed / min

6.47

57%

Strike defense

49%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.75

50%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Regina TarinErnesta Kareckaite

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Regina Tarin(1 fights)Ernesta Kareckaite(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.4|Blue -32.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Regina TarinTargetErnesta Kareckaite

By target zone

41% acc · 67%

Head

37% acc · 75%

71% acc · 30%

Body

67% acc · 19%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

86% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 80%

Distance

39% acc · 84%

77% acc · 20%

Clinch

71% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Regina Tarin rounds

even

Ernesta Kareckaite rounds

Round 1Regina Tarin edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Ernesta Kareckaite edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:14

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 3Regina Tarin edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns1

Control0:48

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

114 / 239

Sig Strikes

105 / 249

47%

Sig Str %

42%

125 / 250

Total Strikes

127 / 279

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:02

Ctrl Time

1:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ernesta Kareckaite	33 / 82	39 / 90	0 / 0
1	Regina Tarin	37 / 79	39 / 81	0 / 0
2	Ernesta Kareckaite	32 / 70	36 / 75	1 / 2
2	Regina Tarin	31 / 68	35 / 72	0 / 0
3	Ernesta Kareckaite	40 / 97	52 / 114	0 / 0
3	Regina Tarin	46 / 92	51 / 97	1 / 3

Regina Tarin

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights1

Ernesta Kareckaite

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3