Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Talita Alencar won · S-DEC R3

Elo1475

Elo1548

Rayanne dos SantosvsTalita AlencarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Saturday, December 9, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Talita Alencar won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRayanne dos Santos: Pressure fightervsTalita Alencar: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rayanne dos Santos wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Talita Alencar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rayanne dos Santos at -162 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Talita Alencar enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Rayanne dos Santos has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rayanne dos Santos

Red Corner

Talita Alencar

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+136

(42%)

1475

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'1"

157.48 cm

Reach

147.32 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rayanne dos SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Puja Tomar · Jun 24

vs Alice Ardelean · May 25

latest

Talita AlencarW3 streak

oldest →

vs Stephanie Luciano · Aug 24

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Apr 25

SUBvs Ariane Carnelossi · Nov 25

DECvs Julia Polastri · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rayanne dos SantosMetricTalita Alencar

4.57

Strikes / min

3.09

6.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

59%

Strike defense

51%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

3.01

80%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.90Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rayanne dos SantosTalita Alencar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rayanne dos Santos(3 fights)Talita Alencar(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -72.3|Blue +72.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rayanne dos SantosTargetTalita Alencar

By target zone

39% acc · 72%

Head

17% acc · 58%

65% acc · 19%

Body

48% acc · 33%

56% acc · 9%

Leg

43% acc · 8%

By position

38% acc · 79%

Distance

16% acc · 58%

92% acc · 19%

Clinch

67% acc · 22%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

58% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rayanne dos Santos rounds

even

Talita Alencar rounds

Round 1Rayanne dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Talita Alencar edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:14

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 3Rayanne dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 130

Sig Strikes

36 / 157

42.3%

Sig Str %

23.7%

80 / 156

Total Strikes

48 / 176

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 9

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Talita Alencar	11 / 63	13 / 66	0 / 3
1	Rayanne dos Santos	34 / 64	34 / 64	0 / 0
2	Talita Alencar	16 / 44	25 / 58	1 / 1
2	Rayanne dos Santos	10 / 22	32 / 47	0 / 0
3	Talita Alencar	9 / 50	10 / 52	0 / 5
3	Rayanne dos Santos	13 / 44	14 / 45	0 / 1

Rayanne dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights3

Talita Alencar

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach58.0"

Fights5