Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Alice Ardelean won · U-DEC R3

Elo1475

Elo1540

Rayanne dos SantosvsAlice ArdeleanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · Saturday, May 31, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alice Ardelean won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRayanne dos Santos: Pressure fightervsAlice Ardelean: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alice Ardelean wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Alice Ardelean wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alice Ardelean at +176 American odds

+$176 profit

$276 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Rayanne dos Santos

Red Corner

Alice Ardelean

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+176

(36%)

1475

Elo

1540

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'3"

157.48 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rayanne dos SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Talita Alencar · Dec 23

vs Puja Tomar · Jun 24

latest

Alice ArdeleanW2 streak

oldest →

vs Shauna Bannon · Jul 24

vs Melissa Martinez · Oct 24

vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · Nov 25

SUBvs Polyana Viana · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rayanne dos SantosMetricAlice Ardelean

4.57

Strikes / min

7.35

6.47

Strikes absorbed / min

5.20

59%

Strike defense

62%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

1.00

80%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.90Δ 4.05 — meaningful gap+2.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rayanne dos SantosAlice Ardelean

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rayanne dos Santos(3 fights)Alice Ardelean(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.8|Blue +64.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rayanne dos SantosTargetAlice Ardelean

By target zone

32% acc · 86%

Head

115

38% acc · 75%

60% acc · 8%

Body

72% acc · 18%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

85% acc · 7%

By position

35% acc · 96%

Distance

150

44% acc · 97%

38% acc · 4%

Clinch

57% acc · 3%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rayanne dos Santos rounds

even

Alice Ardelean rounds

Round 1Alice Ardelean edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:29

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Alice Ardelean edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

45Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Alice Ardelean edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:01

83Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 225

Sig Strikes

154 / 352

37.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

79 / 227

Total Strikes

159 / 359

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

16.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alice Ardelean	26 / 86	28 / 89	0 / 0
1	Rayanne dos Santos	23 / 45	24 / 46	0 / 1
2	Alice Ardelean	45 / 107	45 / 108	1 / 1
2	Rayanne dos Santos	21 / 62	21 / 63	0 / 3
3	Alice Ardelean	83 / 159	86 / 162	0 / 0
3	Rayanne dos Santos	34 / 118	34 / 118	1 / 2

Rayanne dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights3

Alice Ardelean

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4