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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Ray Borg won · SUB R1
Elo1492
Elo1354

Ray BorgvsShane HowellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Ray Borg won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:17

Model Prediction: Ray Borg wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Ray Borg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ray Borg at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ray Borg has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Shane Howell has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ray Borg
Red Corner
VS
Shane Howell
Blue Corner
-460
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+410
(20%)
1492
Elo
1354
32
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'8"
160.02 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ray Borg
oldest →
L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Oct 17
L
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 19
W
vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19
W
vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 20
L
vs Ricky Simon · May 20
latest
Shane Howell
oldest →
L
vs Paddy Holohan · Jan 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ray BorgMetricShane Howell
1.52
Strikes / min
1.27
1.93
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
48%
Strike defense
42%
3.89
TDs / 15 min
0.00
46%
Takedown defense
20%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.41evenly matched on net striking-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1500Strikes12.0 vs —Takedowns5.0 vs —Sub Atts2.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Ray BorgShane Howell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ray Borg(10 fights)Shane Howell(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.2|Blue -138.2
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ray BorgTargetShane Howell

By target zone

1
50% acc · 50%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
1
100% acc · 50%
Leg
0

By position

2
67% acc · 100%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ray Borg rounds
0
even
0
Shane Howell rounds
Round 1Ray Borg edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control1:45
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 3
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
66%
Sig Str %
0%
6 / 8
Total Strikes
2 / 5
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:45
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Shane Howell0 / 32 / 50 / 00
1Ray Borg2 / 36 / 81 / 12

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights12

Shane Howell

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2