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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Scoggins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1366

Ray BorgvsJustin ScogginsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · Saturday, February 6, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Justin Scoggins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRay Borg: WrestlervsJustin Scoggins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Justin Scoggins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Scoggins at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Scoggins has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ray Borg

Red Corner

Justin Scoggins

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1492

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'7"

160.02 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ray Borg

oldest →

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Oct 17

vs Casey Kenney · Mar 19

vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19

vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 20

vs Ricky Simon · May 20

latest

Justin ScogginsL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Moraga · Sep 14

DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15

SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ray BorgMetricJustin Scoggins

1.52

Strikes / min

3.56

1.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

48%

Strike defense

55%

3.89

TDs / 15 min

3.42

46%

Takedown defense

82%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ray BorgJustin Scoggins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ray Borg(10 fights)Justin Scoggins(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ray BorgTargetJustin Scoggins

By target zone

37% acc · 65%

Head

40% acc · 61%

88% acc · 35%

Body

58% acc · 25%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

25% acc · 35%

Distance

33% acc · 53%

75% acc · 30%

Clinch

85% acc · 19%

88% acc · 35%

Ground

100% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ray Borg rounds

even

Justin Scoggins rounds

Round 1Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:09

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 2Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:24

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:30

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 44

Sig Strikes

57 / 120

47.7%

Sig Str %

58.3%

45 / 70

Total Strikes

81 / 148

1 / 8

TDs

4 / 6

33.3%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

7:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Scoggins	23 / 54	24 / 56	0 / 1
1	Ray Borg	4 / 15	6 / 17	0 / 4
2	Justin Scoggins	22 / 53	32 / 65	2 / 3
2	Ray Borg	9 / 19	11 / 21	0 / 3
3	Justin Scoggins	12 / 13	25 / 27	2 / 2
3	Ray Borg	7 / 10	28 / 32	1 / 1

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights12

Justin Scoggins

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9