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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Ray Borg won · SUB R3
Elo1492
Elo1490
Chris Kelades

Ray BorgvsChris KeladesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · Saturday, February 14, 2015Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Ray Borg won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:56

Model Prediction: Chris Kelades wins(76.8%)

Actual result: Ray Borg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Kelades at +775 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Kelades has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ray Borg
Red Corner
VS
Chris Kelades
Blue Corner
-975
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+775
(11%)
1492
Elo
1490
32
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'7"
160.02 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ray Borg
oldest →
L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Oct 17
L
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 19
W
vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19
W
vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 20
L
vs Ricky Simon · May 20
latest
Chris Kelades
oldest →
W
vs Paddy Holohan · Oct 14
W
vs Chris Beal · Aug 15
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Apr 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ray BorgMetricChris Kelades
1.52
Strikes / min
2.40
1.93
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
48%
Strike defense
48%
3.89
TDs / 15 min
1.04
46%
Takedown defense
53%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1517Strikes7.0 vs 50.0Takedowns3.0 vs 2.0Sub Atts2.00 vs 1.00Form0.1 vs 1.0
Ray BorgChris Kelades

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ray Borg(10 fights)Chris Kelades(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ray BorgTargetChris Kelades

By target zone

11
55% acc · 58%
Head
2
25% acc · 50%
7
100% acc · 37%
Body
2
67% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 5%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
33% acc · 11%
Distance
1
13% acc · 25%
1
100% acc · 5%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 75%
16
76% acc · 84%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Ray Borg rounds
0
even
0
Chris Kelades rounds
Round 1Ray Borg edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns3
Control4:08
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:37Control
Round 2Ray Borg edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control4:43
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Ray Borg edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:50
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
19 / 28
Sig Strikes
4 / 12
67.3%
Sig Str %
51%
45 / 62
Total Strikes
28 / 36
5 / 6
TDs
0 / 1
91.7%
TD %
0%
4
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
11:41
Ctrl Time
0:37

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Kelades2 / 610 / 140 / 10
1Ray Borg4 / 79 / 123 / 41
2Chris Kelades1 / 511 / 150 / 00
2Ray Borg12 / 1722 / 331 / 12
3Chris Kelades1 / 17 / 70 / 00
3Ray Borg3 / 414 / 171 / 11

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights12

Chris Kelades

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4