Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Casey Kenney won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1406

Ray BorgvsCasey KenneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Casey Kenney won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRay Borg: WrestlervsCasey Kenney: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ray Borg wins(77.8%)

Actual result: Casey Kenney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ray Borg at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Casey Kenney has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Casey Kenney has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).
Casey Kenney has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ray Borg

Red Corner

Casey Kenney

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1492

Elo

1406

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'7"

160.02 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ray Borg

oldest →

vs Jussier Formiga · Mar 17

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Oct 17

vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19

vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 20

vs Ricky Simon · May 20

latest

Casey KenneyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20

vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20

vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21

vs Song Yadong · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ray BorgMetricCasey Kenney

1.52

Strikes / min

4.85

1.93

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

48%

Strike defense

58%

3.89

TDs / 15 min

1.09

46%

Takedown defense

61%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ray BorgCasey Kenney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ray Borg(10 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.4|Blue -86.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ray BorgTargetCasey Kenney

By target zone

35% acc · 47%

Head

33% acc · 28%

73% acc · 47%

Body

95% acc · 59%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

80% acc · 13%

By position

14% acc · 12%

Distance

39% acc · 28%

68% acc · 76%

Clinch

76% acc · 59%

100% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ray Borg rounds

even

Casey Kenney rounds

Round 1Casey Kenney edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:36

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:38Control

Round 2Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control2:36

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 3Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control2:18

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 35

Sig Strikes

32 / 52

52.7%

Sig Str %

63%

22 / 40

Total Strikes

46 / 68

7 / 10

TDs

2 / 3

78.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:30

Ctrl Time

6:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Casey Kenney	10 / 15	15 / 22	2 / 2
1	Ray Borg	2 / 4	4 / 6	1 / 1
2	Casey Kenney	13 / 16	17 / 20	0 / 1
2	Ray Borg	7 / 10	8 / 11	3 / 5
3	Casey Kenney	9 / 21	14 / 26	0 / 0
3	Ray Borg	8 / 21	10 / 23	3 / 4

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights12

Casey Kenney

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8