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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Raulian Paiva won · Decision R3
Elo1429
Raulian Paiva
Elo1492

Raulian PaivavsZhalgas ZhamagulovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Raulian Paiva won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Raulian Paiva wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Raulian Paiva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raulian Paiva at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Zhalgas Zhamagulov (52.9%).
  • Raulian Paiva has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raulian Paiva
Red Corner
VS
Zhalgas Zhamagulov
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+142
(41%)
1429
Elo
1492
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'4"
175.26 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raulian PaivaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rogerio Bontorin · Aug 19
W
KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20
W
vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21
L
vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22
latest
Zhalgas ZhamagulovNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raulian PaivaMetricZhalgas Zhamagulov
4.14
Strikes / min
—
5.01
Strikes absorbed / min
—
48%
Strike defense
—
0.65
TDs / 15 min
—
77%
Takedown defense
—
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1500Strikes4.8 vs 0.0Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Raulian PaivaZhalgas Zhamagulov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Raulian Paiva(7 fights)Zhalgas Zhamagulov(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -63.4|Blue +63.4
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Raulian Paiva

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7

Zhalgas Zhamagulov

No profile data.