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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sergey Morozov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1498

Raulian PaivavsSergey MorozovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sergey Morozov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaulian Paiva: Pressure fightervsSergey Morozov: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Sergey Morozov wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Sergey Morozov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergey Morozov at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergey Morozov has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Raulian Paiva

Red Corner

Sergey Morozov

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1429

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raulian Paiva

oldest →

KOvs Rogerio Bontorin · Aug 19

KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20

DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20

vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21

latest

Sergey Morozov

oldest →

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 21

vs Khalid Taha · Jul 21

SUBvs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Feb 22

vs Journey Newson · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raulian PaivaMetricSergey Morozov

4.14

Strikes / min

3.01

5.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

48%

Strike defense

61%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

3.63

77%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87evenly matched on net striking+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raulian PaivaSergey Morozov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raulian Paiva(7 fights)Sergey Morozov(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -69.5|Blue +69.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raulian PaivaTargetSergey Morozov

By target zone

43% acc · 81%

Head

50% acc · 82%

50% acc · 16%

Body

89% acc · 12%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

80% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 98%

Distance

54% acc · 97%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raulian Paiva rounds

even

Sergey Morozov rounds

Round 1Raulian Paiva edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:03

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Sergey Morozov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:51Control

Round 3Sergey Morozov edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:10

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 142

Sig Strikes

68 / 127

44.3%

Sig Str %

52.3%

63 / 142

Total Strikes

82 / 143

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 13

25%

TD %

12%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

4:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sergey Morozov	31 / 57	32 / 58	0 / 2
1	Raulian Paiva	39 / 76	39 / 76	0 / 0
2	Sergey Morozov	7 / 14	17 / 26	1 / 5
2	Raulian Paiva	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0
3	Sergey Morozov	30 / 56	33 / 59	1 / 6
3	Raulian Paiva	16 / 50	16 / 50	1 / 4

Raulian Paiva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7

Sergey Morozov

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5