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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Malley won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1429

Elo1533

Raulian PaivavsSean O'MalleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:42

Style matchupRaulian Paiva: Pressure fightervsSean O'Malley: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(71.7%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean O'Malley is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Raulian Paiva has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Sean O'Malley has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raulian Paiva has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Raulian Paiva

Red Corner

Sean O'Malley

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-305

(75%)

1429

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raulian Paiva

oldest →

KOvs Rogerio Bontorin · Aug 19

KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20

DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20

vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21

vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22

latest

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raulian PaivaMetricSean O'Malley

4.14

Strikes / min

6.05

5.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

48%

Strike defense

60%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.24

77%

Takedown defense

60%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 3.52 — meaningful gap+2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raulian PaivaSean O'Malley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raulian Paiva(7 fights)Sean O'Malley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -104.0|Blue +104.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raulian PaivaTargetSean O'Malley

By target zone

6% acc · 18%

Head

56% acc · 72%

50% acc · 27%

Body

89% acc · 21%

67% acc · 55%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

23% acc · 100%

Distance

63% acc · 95%

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raulian Paiva rounds

even

Sean O'Malley rounds

Round 1Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 47

Sig Strikes

39 / 62

23%

Sig Str %

62%

11 / 47

Total Strikes

40 / 63

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean O'Malley	39 / 62	40 / 63	0 / 0	0
1	Raulian Paiva	11 / 47	11 / 47	0 / 2	0

Raulian Paiva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14