Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raul Rosas Jr. won · U-DEC R3

Elo1544

Elo1454

Raul Rosas Jr.vsVince MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Raul Rosas Jr. won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaul Rosas Jr.: WrestlervsVince Morales: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. wins(85.6%)

Actual result: Raul Rosas Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raul Rosas Jr. at -480 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raul Rosas Jr. enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Vince Morales has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Raul Rosas Jr. (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Raul Rosas Jr.

Red Corner

Vince Morales

Blue Corner

-480

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+370

(21%)

1544

Elo

1454

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raul Rosas Jr.W4 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Apr 23

KOvs Terrence Mitchell · Sep 23

SUBvs Ricky Turcios · Jun 24

vs Aoriqileng · Sep 24

vs Rob Font · Mar 26

latest

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 22

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raul Rosas Jr.MetricVince Morales

1.34

Strikes / min

3.54

1.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

52%

Strike defense

54%

6.10

TDs / 15 min

0.71

25%

Takedown defense

63%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raul Rosas Jr.Vince Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raul Rosas Jr.(7 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +90.1|Blue -90.1

Recent Form

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raul Rosas Jr.TargetVince Morales

By target zone

40% acc · 60%

Head

54% acc · 88%

100% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 12%

75% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 80%

Distance

53% acc · 94%

Clinch

80% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raul Rosas Jr. rounds

even

Vince Morales rounds

Round 1Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:33

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:28

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:37

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 39

Sig Strikes

17 / 31

51%

Sig Str %

41.3%

26 / 46

Total Strikes

39 / 53

4 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

49.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:38

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vince Morales	0 / 4	8 / 12	1 / 1	0
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	11 / 18	15 / 22	1 / 3	0
2	Vince Morales	11 / 17	17 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Raul Rosas Jr.	5 / 14	6 / 15	2 / 3	0
3	Vince Morales	6 / 10	14 / 18	0 / 0	2
3	Raul Rosas Jr.	4 / 7	5 / 9	1 / 2	0

Raul Rosas Jr.

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11