Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raul Rosas Jr. won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1544

Elo1472

Raul Rosas Jr.vsTerrence MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raul Rosas Jr. won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:54

Style matchupRaul Rosas Jr.: WrestlervsTerrence Mitchell: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Raul Rosas Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raul Rosas Jr. at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raul Rosas Jr. enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Raul Rosas Jr. has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raul Rosas Jr. has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Raul Rosas Jr. (52.9%).
Terrence Mitchell has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raul Rosas Jr.

Red Corner

Terrence Mitchell

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1544

Elo

1472

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raul Rosas Jr.W4 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Apr 23

SUBvs Ricky Turcios · Jun 24

vs Aoriqileng · Sep 24

vs Vince Morales · Mar 25

vs Rob Font · Mar 26

latest

Terrence Mitchell

oldest →

KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raul Rosas Jr.MetricTerrence Mitchell

1.34

Strikes / min

2.21

1.24

Strikes absorbed / min

8.85

52%

Strike defense

41%

6.10

TDs / 15 min

3.69

25%

Takedown defense

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 6.74 — meaningful gap-6.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raul Rosas Jr.Terrence Mitchell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raul Rosas Jr.(7 fights)Terrence Mitchell(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +71.9|Blue -71.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raul Rosas Jr.TargetTerrence Mitchell

By target zone

59% acc · 94%

Head

28% acc · 83%

100% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

55% acc · 33%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

65% acc · 61%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raul Rosas Jr. rounds

even

Terrence Mitchell rounds

Round 1Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:17

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 30

Sig Strikes

6 / 19

60%

Sig Str %

31%

19 / 31

Total Strikes

6 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Terrence Mitchell	6 / 19	6 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	18 / 30	19 / 31	0 / 0	0

Raul Rosas Jr.

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Terrence Mitchell

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2