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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raul Rosas Jr. won · SUB R2

Elo1544

Elo1466

Raul Rosas Jr.vsRicky TurciosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Saturday, June 8, 2024Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Raul Rosas Jr. won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:22

Style matchupRaul Rosas Jr.: WrestlervsRicky Turcios: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Raul Rosas Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raul Rosas Jr. at -298 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raul Rosas Jr. enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Ricky Turcios has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Raul Rosas Jr. (52.9%).
Ricky Turcios has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raul Rosas Jr.

Red Corner

Ricky Turcios

Blue Corner

-298

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1544

Elo

1466

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raul Rosas Jr.W4 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Apr 23

KOvs Terrence Mitchell · Sep 23

vs Aoriqileng · Sep 24

vs Vince Morales · Mar 25

vs Rob Font · Mar 26

latest

Ricky TurciosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brady Hiestand · Aug 21

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Jul 22

vs Kevin Natividad · Nov 22

vs Benardo Sopaj · Jan 25

SUBvs Alberto Montes · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raul Rosas Jr.MetricRicky Turcios

1.34

Strikes / min

4.68

1.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

52%

Strike defense

51%

6.10

TDs / 15 min

0.85

25%

Takedown defense

44%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raul Rosas Jr.Ricky Turcios

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raul Rosas Jr.(7 fights)Ricky Turcios(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +77.9|Blue -77.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -301.0|Blue +301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raul Rosas Jr.TargetRicky Turcios

By target zone

29% acc · 67%

Head

30% acc · 43%

Body

100% acc · 14%

50% acc · 33%

Leg

75% acc · 43%

By position

25% acc · 67%

Distance

43% acc · 86%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raul Rosas Jr. rounds

even

Ricky Turcios rounds

Round 1Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control3:40

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 2Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control2:09

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 9

Sig Strikes

7 / 15

33%

Sig Str %

47.5%

25 / 34

Total Strikes

64 / 78

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

58%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:49

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ricky Turcios	5 / 11	50 / 61	0 / 0	1
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	1 / 3	21 / 25	2 / 4	0
2	Ricky Turcios	2 / 4	14 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Raul Rosas Jr.	2 / 6	4 / 9	2 / 3	1

Raul Rosas Jr.

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Ricky Turcios

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6