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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
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Elo1542
Elo1548
Raoni Barcelos

Raul Rosas Jr.vsRaoni BarcelosUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Saturday, September 26, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Fight begins in
Style matchupRaul Rosas Jr.: WrestlervsRaoni Barcelos: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Raul Rosas Jr. enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Raoni Barcelos has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raul Rosas Jr.
Red Corner
VS
Raoni Barcelos
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1542
Elo
1548
21
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raul Rosas Jr.W5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Terrence Mitchell · Sep 23
W
SUBvs Ricky Turcios · Jun 24
W
vs Aoriqileng · Sep 24
W
vs Vince Morales · Mar 25
W
vs Rob Font · Mar 26
latest
Raoni BarcelosW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24
W
vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25
W
vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25
W
vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25
W
DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raul Rosas Jr.MetricRaoni Barcelos
1.34
Strikes / min
4.65
1.24
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
52%
Strike defense
60%
6.10
TDs / 15 min
2.51
25%
Takedown defense
87%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.41
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Raul Rosas Jr.(7 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO46%

Neither fighter relies on finishes — likely a decision.

Submission40%

Historical win share: Raul Rosas Jr. earned 33% of wins by submission.

Decision14%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Raul Rosas Jr.

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights7

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights15