Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raul Rosas Jr. won · SUB R1

Elo1544

Elo1441

Raul Rosas Jr.vsJay PerrinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raul Rosas Jr. won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:44

Style matchupRaul Rosas Jr.: WrestlervsJay Perrin: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Raul Rosas Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raul Rosas Jr. at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raul Rosas Jr. enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jay Perrin has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raul Rosas Jr.

Red Corner

Jay Perrin

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1544

Elo

1441

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raul Rosas Jr.W5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Terrence Mitchell · Sep 23

SUBvs Ricky Turcios · Jun 24

vs Aoriqileng · Sep 24

vs Vince Morales · Mar 25

vs Rob Font · Mar 26

latest

Jay PerrinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mario Bautista · Feb 22

vs Aoriqileng · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raul Rosas Jr.MetricJay Perrin

1.34

Strikes / min

3.71

1.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

52%

Strike defense

44%

6.10

TDs / 15 min

2.83

25%

Takedown defense

58%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raul Rosas Jr.Jay Perrin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raul Rosas Jr.(7 fights)Jay Perrin(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.1|Blue -103.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raul Rosas Jr.TargetJay Perrin

By target zone

40% acc · 67%

Head

43% acc · 75%

Body

50% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raul Rosas Jr. rounds

even

Jay Perrin rounds

Round 1Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control2:12

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 7

Sig Strikes

4 / 8

42%

Sig Str %

50%

9 / 14

Total Strikes

4 / 8

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jay Perrin	4 / 8	4 / 8	0 / 0	0
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	3 / 7	9 / 14	2 / 3	2

Raul Rosas Jr.

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Jay Perrin

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3