Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raul Rosas Jr. won · U-DEC R3

Elo1544

Elo1491

Raul Rosas Jr.vsAoriqilengUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raul Rosas Jr. won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaul Rosas Jr.: WrestlervsAoriqileng: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Raul Rosas Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raul Rosas Jr. enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Aoriqileng has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Raul Rosas Jr. (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Raul Rosas Jr.

Red Corner

Aoriqileng

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1544

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raul Rosas Jr.W4 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Apr 23

KOvs Terrence Mitchell · Sep 23

SUBvs Ricky Turcios · Jun 24

vs Vince Morales · Mar 25

vs Rob Font · Mar 26

latest

Aoriqileng

oldest →

vs Jay Perrin · Aug 22

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 23

vs Johnny Munoz · Oct 23

KOvs Cody Gibson · Oct 25

KOvs Cody Haddon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raul Rosas Jr.MetricAoriqileng

1.34

Strikes / min

4.69

1.24

Strikes absorbed / min

5.47

52%

Strike defense

48%

6.10

TDs / 15 min

1.20

25%

Takedown defense

58%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raul Rosas Jr.Aoriqileng

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raul Rosas Jr.(7 fights)Aoriqileng(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.5|Blue -53.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -245.0|Blue +245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raul Rosas Jr.TargetAoriqileng

By target zone

36% acc · 51%

Head

28% acc · 55%

35% acc · 17%

Body

91% acc · 45%

87% acc · 32%

Leg

By position

39% acc · 66%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

Clinch

58% acc · 34%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raul Rosas Jr. rounds

even

Aoriqileng rounds

Round 1Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:13

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control4:19

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 94

Sig Strikes

22 / 54

46.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

98 / 158

Total Strikes

80 / 118

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:32

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aoriqileng	4 / 10	18 / 25	0 / 0
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	11 / 22	41 / 55	1 / 2
2	Aoriqileng	17 / 42	17 / 42	0 / 0
2	Raul Rosas Jr.	17 / 49	17 / 49	0 / 3
3	Aoriqileng	1 / 2	45 / 51	0 / 0
3	Raul Rosas Jr.	13 / 23	40 / 54	2 / 2

Raul Rosas Jr.

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Aoriqileng

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9