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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rashad Evans won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1366

Elo1352

Rashad EvansvsTito OrtizUFC Prediction Result

UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Saturday, August 6, 2011Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Rashad Evans won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:48

Style matchupRashad Evans: WrestlervsTito Ortiz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tito Ortiz wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Rashad Evans wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tito Ortiz at +335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rashad Evans enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rashad Evans has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rashad Evans

Red Corner

Tito Ortiz

Blue Corner

-375

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1366

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rashad EvansL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18

latest

Tito OrtizL2 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Hamill · Oct 10

SUBvs Ryan Bader · Jul 11

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Dec 11

vs Forrest Griffin · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rashad EvansMetricTito Ortiz

2.14

Strikes / min

2.59

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

2.88

63%

Strike defense

60%

2.98

TDs / 15 min

2.47

73%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rashad EvansTito Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rashad Evans(10 fights)Tito Ortiz(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.2|Blue -14.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +399.0|Blue -399.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rashad EvansTargetTito Ortiz

By target zone

46% acc · 88%

Head

19% acc · 80%

100% acc · 10%

Body

25% acc · 20%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

0% acc

By position

29% acc · 17%

Distance

5% acc · 20%

60% acc · 25%

Clinch

50% acc · 80%

57% acc · 58%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rashad Evans rounds

even

Tito Ortiz rounds

Round 1Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:29

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control3:36

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 97

Sig Strikes

5 / 27

50%

Sig Str %

11.5%

77 / 135

Total Strikes

6 / 28

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:05

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tito Ortiz	5 / 21	6 / 22	1 / 1	0
1	Rashad Evans	23 / 55	36 / 73	1 / 1	0
2	Tito Ortiz	0 / 6	0 / 6	0 / 0	1
2	Rashad Evans	25 / 42	41 / 62	0 / 0	0

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Tito Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5