Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rogerio Nogueira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1387

Rashad EvansvsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rogerio Nogueira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rashad Evans wins(78.0%)

Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rashad Evans at -525 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rashad Evans enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rashad Evans

Red Corner

Rogerio Nogueira

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1366

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rashad EvansL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18

latest

Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18

KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19

vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rashad EvansMetricRogerio Nogueira

2.14

Strikes / min

2.43

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

63%

Strike defense

59%

2.98

TDs / 15 min

0.64

73%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rashad EvansRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rashad Evans(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rashad EvansTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

24% acc · 73%

Head

21% acc · 70%

40% acc · 18%

Body

56% acc · 25%

50% acc · 9%

Leg

67% acc · 5%

By position

23% acc · 77%

Distance

25% acc · 93%

63% acc · 23%

Clinch

60% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rashad Evans rounds

even

Rogerio Nogueira rounds

Round 1Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:13

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rogerio Nogueira edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rogerio Nogueira edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 81

Sig Strikes

40 / 152

28%

Sig Str %

23.7%

22 / 81

Total Strikes

40 / 152

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rogerio Nogueira	4 / 26	4 / 26	0 / 0
1	Rashad Evans	8 / 20	8 / 20	1 / 1
2	Rogerio Nogueira	15 / 55	15 / 55	0 / 0
2	Rashad Evans	5 / 26	5 / 26	0 / 2
3	Rogerio Nogueira	21 / 71	21 / 71	0 / 0
3	Rashad Evans	9 / 35	9 / 35	0 / 2

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12