Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Rashad Evans won · U-DEC R5

Elo1366

Elo1490

Rashad EvansvsPhil DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · Saturday, January 28, 2012Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Rashad Evans won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRashad Evans: WrestlervsPhil Davis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Rashad Evans wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at +176 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rashad Evans enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Phil Davis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rashad Evans

Red Corner

Phil Davis

Blue Corner

-191

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+176

(36%)

1366

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rashad EvansL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18

latest

Phil Davis

oldest →

vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13

vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13

vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14

vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14

vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rashad EvansMetricPhil Davis

2.14

Strikes / min

2.85

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

1.33

63%

Strike defense

72%

2.98

TDs / 15 min

2.99

73%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rashad EvansPhil Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rashad Evans(10 fights)Phil Davis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.6|Blue +124.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rashad EvansTargetPhil Davis

By target zone

37% acc · 90%

Head

14% acc · 41%

50% acc · 8%

Body

55% acc · 33%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

62% acc · 25%

By position

29% acc · 55%

Distance

21% acc · 73%

50% acc · 23%

Clinch

58% acc · 27%

78% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rashad Evans rounds

even

Phil Davis rounds

Round 1Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:43

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:54

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:26

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 4Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:03

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:01

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 162

Sig Strikes

51 / 197

39.4%

Sig Str %

26.8%

106 / 209

Total Strikes

61 / 208

3 / 4

TDs

2 / 9

83.3%

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

7:07

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Phil Davis	7 / 36	7 / 36	0 / 1
1	Rashad Evans	7 / 21	20 / 35	1 / 1
2	Phil Davis	15 / 39	16 / 40	0 / 0
2	Rashad Evans	11 / 38	22 / 49	1 / 1
3	Phil Davis	10 / 26	17 / 33	2 / 4
3	Rashad Evans	9 / 16	21 / 29	0 / 0
4	Rashad Evans	22 / 44	23 / 45	0 / 0
4	Phil Davis	10 / 49	12 / 51	0 / 3
5	Phil Davis	9 / 47	9 / 48	0 / 1
5	Rashad Evans	13 / 43	20 / 51	1 / 2

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11