Middleweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Kelly won · S-DEC R3

Elo1366

Rashad EvansvsDaniel KellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Kelly won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRashad Evans: WrestlervsDaniel Kelly: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Kelly at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rashad Evans enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
Rashad Evans has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rashad Evans

Red Corner

Daniel Kelly

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1366

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rashad EvansL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chael Sonnen · Nov 13

vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18

latest

Daniel KellyL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16

vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16

KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17

vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17

KOvs Tom Breese · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rashad EvansMetricDaniel Kelly

2.14

Strikes / min

3.62

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

4.64

63%

Strike defense

61%

2.98

TDs / 15 min

1.86

73%

Takedown defense

78%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rashad EvansDaniel Kelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rashad Evans(10 fights)Daniel Kelly(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rashad EvansTargetDaniel Kelly

By target zone

34% acc · 81%

Head

36% acc · 86%

83% acc · 19%

Body

50% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

36% acc · 85%

Distance

34% acc · 78%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rashad Evans rounds

even

Daniel Kelly rounds

Round 1Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:07

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 138

Sig Strikes

74 / 193

34%

Sig Str %

36.3%

62 / 150

Total Strikes

92 / 215

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 8

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Kelly	12 / 46	14 / 49	0 / 2
1	Rashad Evans	8 / 30	8 / 32	0 / 1
2	Daniel Kelly	23 / 57	30 / 66	0 / 3
2	Rashad Evans	10 / 34	11 / 35	1 / 2
3	Daniel Kelly	39 / 90	48 / 100	0 / 3
3	Rashad Evans	35 / 74	43 / 83	0 / 1

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10