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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Rashad Evans won · S-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1491

Rashad EvansvsDan HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Rashad Evans won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dan Henderson wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Rashad Evans wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Henderson at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rashad Evans enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rashad Evans has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rashad Evans has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rashad Evans

Red Corner

Dan Henderson

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1366

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rashad EvansL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18

latest

Dan Henderson

oldest →

KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15

KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16

vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rashad EvansMetricDan Henderson

2.14

Strikes / min

2.44

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

63%

Strike defense

51%

2.98

TDs / 15 min

1.52

73%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rashad EvansDan Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rashad Evans(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.8|Blue +124.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rashad EvansTargetDan Henderson

By target zone

42% acc · 82%

Head

32% acc · 60%

63% acc · 13%

Body

93% acc · 33%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

46% acc · 82%

Distance

28% acc · 48%

41% acc · 18%

Clinch

87% acc · 50%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rashad Evans rounds

even

Dan Henderson rounds

Round 1Dan Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:15

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:19

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control2:06

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 87

Sig Strikes

40 / 91

42.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

66 / 116

Total Strikes

53 / 104

0 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:40

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Henderson	10 / 30	13 / 33	0 / 0
1	Rashad Evans	5 / 24	10 / 29	0 / 3
2	Dan Henderson	12 / 33	15 / 36	0 / 0
2	Rashad Evans	13 / 25	17 / 29	0 / 3
3	Dan Henderson	18 / 28	25 / 35	0 / 0
3	Rashad Evans	21 / 38	39 / 58	0 / 2

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11