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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rashad Evans won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1366
Elo1490
Chael Sonnen

Rashad EvansvsChael SonnenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rashad Evans won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:05

Style matchupRashad Evans: WrestlervsChael Sonnen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chael Sonnen wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Rashad Evans wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chael Sonnen at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rashad Evans enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Chael Sonnen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rashad Evans
Red Corner
VS
Chael Sonnen
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
1366
Elo
1490
46
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rashad EvansL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15
L
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16
L
vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17
L
vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17
L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18
latest
Chael Sonnen
oldest →
W
SUBvs Brian Stann · Oct 11
W
vs Michael Bisping · Jan 12
L
KOvs Anderson Silva · Jul 12
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Apr 13
W
SUBvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rashad EvansMetricChael Sonnen
2.14
Strikes / min
3.08
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
1.10
63%
Strike defense
62%
2.98
TDs / 15 min
3.81
73%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.28Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap+1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1515Strikes28.9 vs 31.3Takedowns2.9 vs 2.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.31Form0.2 vs 0.2
Rashad EvansChael Sonnen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Rashad Evans(10 fights)Chael Sonnen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -124.5|Blue +124.5
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rashad EvansTargetChael Sonnen

By target zone

19
70% acc · 95%
Head
2
18% acc · 67%
1
100% acc · 5%
Body
1
50% acc · 33%
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

1
50% acc · 5%
Distance
1
14% acc · 33%
2
100% acc · 10%
Clinch
2
29% acc · 67%
17
71% acc · 85%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rashad Evans rounds
0
even
0
Chael Sonnen rounds
Round 1Rashad Evans edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control3:14
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
20 / 28
Sig Strikes
3 / 14
71%
Sig Str %
21%
32 / 42
Total Strikes
15 / 26
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:14
Ctrl Time
0:35

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chael Sonnen3 / 1415 / 260 / 10
1Rashad Evans20 / 2832 / 421 / 20

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Chael Sonnen

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7