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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Anthony Smith won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1366
Elo1485
Anthony Smith

Rashad EvansvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Saturday, June 9, 2018Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:53

Model Prediction: Anthony Smith wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Smith at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rashad Evans enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Rashad Evans has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rashad Evans has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rashad Evans
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Smith
Blue Corner
+188
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-205
(67%)
1366
Elo
1485
46
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rashad EvansL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chael Sonnen · Nov 13
L
vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15
L
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16
L
vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17
L
vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17
latest
Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23
W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24
L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24
L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rashad EvansMetricAnthony Smith
2.14
Strikes / min
3.19
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
5.04
63%
Strike defense
44%
2.98
TDs / 15 min
0.44
73%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.28Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1522Strikes27.9 vs 33.9Takedowns2.4 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.29Form-0.9 vs 0.1
Rashad EvansAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Rashad Evans(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -119.3|Blue +119.3
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +182.0|Blue -182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rashad EvansTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

1
17% acc · 100%
Head
4
57% acc · 67%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 33%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
50% acc · 33%
1
33% acc · 100%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 33%
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rashad Evans rounds
0
even
1
Anthony Smith rounds
Round 1Anthony Smith edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:15
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 6
Sig Strikes
6 / 9
16%
Sig Str %
66%
2 / 7
Total Strikes
6 / 9
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:15
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Smith6 / 96 / 90 / 10
1Rashad Evans1 / 62 / 70 / 10

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights25