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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tai Tuivasa won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1453
Tai Tuivasa

Rashad CoultervsTai TuivasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Tai Tuivasa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:35

Style matchupRashad Coulter: Pressure fightervsTai Tuivasa: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Rashad Coulter wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Tai Tuivasa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rashad Coulter at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Rashad Coulter has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rashad Coulter
Red Corner
VS
Tai Tuivasa
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-175
(64%)
1491
Elo
1453
44
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rashad Coulter
oldest →
L
KOvs Chase Sherman · May 17
L
KOvs Chris de la Rocha · Jun 18
W
vs Hu Yaozong · Nov 18
latest
Tai TuivasaL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24
L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24
L
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26
L
DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rashad CoulterMetricTai Tuivasa
4.82
Strikes / min
3.37
6.68
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
50%
Strike defense
42%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
62%
Takedown defense
58%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.86evenly matched on net striking-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes36.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Rashad CoulterTai Tuivasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401460148015001520← oldermost recent →
Rashad Coulter(4 fights)Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +38.6|Blue -38.6
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rashad CoulterTargetTai Tuivasa

By target zone

2
18% acc · 20%
Head
16
55% acc · 73%
7
100% acc · 70%
Body
3
75% acc · 14%
1
100% acc · 10%
Leg
3
100% acc · 14%

By position

3
30% acc · 30%
Distance
14
56% acc · 64%
7
100% acc · 70%
Clinch
6
67% acc · 27%
0
0% acc
Ground
2
100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rashad Coulter rounds
0
even
1
Tai Tuivasa rounds
Round 1Tai Tuivasa edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:38
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:15Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
10 / 19
Sig Strikes
22 / 36
52%
Sig Str %
61%
19 / 28
Total Strikes
22 / 36
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 2
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:38
Ctrl Time
1:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tai Tuivasa22 / 3622 / 360 / 20
1Rashad Coulter10 / 1919 / 280 / 20

Rashad Coulter

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17