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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Raquel Pennington won · U-DEC R5

Elo1504

Elo1453

Raquel PenningtonvsMayra Bueno SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · Saturday, January 20, 2024Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRaquel Pennington: Well-roundedvsMayra Bueno Silva: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at +142 American odds

+$142 profit

$242 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mayra Bueno Silva enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Raquel Pennington has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Raquel Pennington

Red Corner

Mayra Bueno Silva

Blue Corner

+142

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1504

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Sep 21

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Mayra Bueno SilvaL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lina Lansberg · Feb 23

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Jun 24

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Feb 25

vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Nov 25

DECvs Michelle Montague · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raquel PenningtonMetricMayra Bueno Silva

4.10

Strikes / min

3.52

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

4.71

61%

Strike defense

51%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

0.46

62%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.97 — meaningful gap-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raquel PenningtonMayra Bueno Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raquel Pennington(10 fights)Mayra Bueno Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +51.4|Blue -51.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raquel PenningtonTargetMayra Bueno Silva

By target zone

58% acc · 68%

Head

73% acc · 46%

94% acc · 24%

Body

87% acc · 38%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

79% acc · 16%

By position

49% acc · 40%

Distance

62% acc · 41%

88% acc · 28%

Clinch

95% acc · 55%

88% acc · 31%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raquel Pennington rounds

even

Mayra Bueno Silva rounds

Round 1Mayra Bueno Silva edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:16

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:20Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:04

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:46Control

Round 3Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control2:32

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 4Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control3:17

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 5Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control4:19

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

134 / 201

Sig Strikes

69 / 88

64.8%

Sig Str %

81.2%

265 / 342

Total Strikes

96 / 118

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 9

50%

TD %

30%

Sub Att

Rev

11:28

Ctrl Time

8:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mayra Bueno Silva	18 / 22	27 / 31	2 / 2	0
1	Raquel Pennington	11 / 22	26 / 39	0 / 2	0
2	Mayra Bueno Silva	20 / 30	29 / 41	0 / 1	1
2	Raquel Pennington	33 / 52	47 / 66	0 / 0	0
3	Mayra Bueno Silva	17 / 20	20 / 23	0 / 2	1
3	Raquel Pennington	27 / 43	52 / 68	1 / 1	0
4	Raquel Pennington	29 / 38	75 / 86	0 / 0	0
4	Mayra Bueno Silva	7 / 8	8 / 10	1 / 2	1
5	Mayra Bueno Silva	7 / 8	12 / 13	0 / 2	0
5	Raquel Pennington	34 / 46	65 / 83	0 / 0	2

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Mayra Bueno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12