Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1404

Raquel PenningtonvsMarion ReneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 20, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marion Reneau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Raquel Pennington

Red Corner

Marion Reneau

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1504

Elo

1404

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Marion ReneauL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sara McMann · Feb 18

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raquel PenningtonMetricMarion Reneau

4.10

Strikes / min

3.20

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

61%

Strike defense

59%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

0.62

62%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raquel PenningtonMarion Reneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raquel Pennington(10 fights)Marion Reneau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +100.7|Blue -100.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -315.0|Blue +315.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raquel PenningtonTargetMarion Reneau

By target zone

56% acc · 50%

Head

24% acc · 43%

92% acc · 43%

Body

80% acc · 43%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

86% acc · 13%

By position

55% acc · 48%

Distance

26% acc · 48%

93% acc · 49%

Clinch

73% acc · 52%

80% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raquel Pennington rounds

even

Marion Reneau rounds

Round 1Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:24

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control2:15

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:38Control

Round 3Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control1:50

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

107 / 154

Sig Strikes

46 / 117

68.7%

Sig Str %

40%

118 / 165

Total Strikes

81 / 154

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:29

Ctrl Time

3:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marion Reneau	17 / 52	24 / 59	0 / 1
1	Raquel Pennington	23 / 36	25 / 38	0 / 0
2	Marion Reneau	13 / 29	35 / 52	1 / 1
2	Raquel Pennington	37 / 50	41 / 54	0 / 0
3	Marion Reneau	16 / 36	22 / 43	1 / 2
3	Raquel Pennington	47 / 68	52 / 73	1 / 2

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12