Women's Featherweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · SUB R2

Elo1504

Elo1474

Raquel PenningtonvsMacy ChiassonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:07

Style matchupRaquel Pennington: Well-roundedvsMacy Chiasson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Macy Chiasson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Raquel Pennington has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Macy Chiasson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raquel Pennington

Red Corner

Macy Chiasson

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1504

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'11"

170.18 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Sep 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Macy ChiassonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Pannie Kianzad · Mar 24

KOvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jun 24

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 25

vs Yana Santos · Oct 25

vs Ailin Perez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raquel PenningtonMetricMacy Chiasson

4.10

Strikes / min

3.21

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

61%

Strike defense

44%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

1.87

62%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raquel PenningtonMacy Chiasson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raquel Pennington(10 fights)Macy Chiasson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.4|Blue -30.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raquel PenningtonTargetMacy Chiasson

By target zone

46% acc · 49%

Head

25% acc · 62%

71% acc · 44%

Body

50% acc · 35%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

33% acc · 4%

By position

54% acc · 84%

Distance

28% acc · 85%

88% acc · 16%

Clinch

50% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raquel Pennington rounds

even

Macy Chiasson rounds

Round 1Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:31

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:38

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 79

Sig Strikes

26 / 86

57%

Sig Str %

29.5%

61 / 95

Total Strikes

64 / 126

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:09

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Macy Chiasson	15 / 48	48 / 83	1 / 1	0
1	Raquel Pennington	24 / 38	37 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Macy Chiasson	11 / 38	16 / 43	0 / 1	0
2	Raquel Pennington	21 / 41	24 / 44	0 / 0	1

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Macy Chiasson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14