← All fights/Event page

Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Julianna Pena won · S-DEC R5

Elo1504

Elo1496

Raquel PenningtonvsJulianna PenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Julianna Pena won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Julianna Pena wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Julianna Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julianna Pena at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raquel Pennington enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Raquel Pennington has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raquel Pennington

Red Corner

Julianna Pena

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1504

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raquel PenningtonW5 streak

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Sep 21

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

latest

Julianna PenaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Germaine de Randamie · Oct 20

SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21

SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raquel PenningtonMetricJulianna Pena

4.10

Strikes / min

3.10

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.56

61%

Strike defense

57%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

1.70

62%

Takedown defense

24%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raquel PenningtonJulianna Pena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raquel Pennington(10 fights)Julianna Pena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.2|Blue -8.2

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -539.0|Blue +539.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raquel PenningtonTargetJulianna Pena

By target zone

21% acc · 62%

Head

33% acc · 89%

88% acc · 32%

Body

82% acc · 10%

86% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

29% acc · 96%

Distance

35% acc · 98%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raquel Pennington rounds

even

Julianna Pena rounds

Round 1Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 3Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 4Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

0Knockdowns

Round 5Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:11

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 317

Sig Strikes

92 / 260

27.2%

Sig Str %

37.4%

112 / 345

Total Strikes

123 / 308

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

5:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julianna Pena	25 / 59	25 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Raquel Pennington	17 / 60	17 / 60	0 / 0	0
2	Julianna Pena	6 / 16	18 / 34	1 / 2	0
2	Raquel Pennington	6 / 24	23 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Julianna Pena	18 / 33	35 / 53	1 / 1	1
3	Raquel Pennington	8 / 34	11 / 39	0 / 0	0
4	Julianna Pena	16 / 67	18 / 76	0 / 0	0
4	Raquel Pennington	26 / 84	26 / 84	0 / 0	0
5	Raquel Pennington	35 / 115	35 / 115	0 / 0	0
5	Julianna Pena	27 / 85	27 / 86	0 / 0	0

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12