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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Holly Holm won · S-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1497

Raquel PenningtonvsHolly HolmUFC Prediction Result

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · Saturday, February 28, 2015Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Holly Holm won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaquel Pennington: Well-roundedvsHolly Holm: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Holly Holm wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at +425 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Raquel Pennington

Red Corner

Holly Holm

Blue Corner

+425

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-550

(85%)

1504

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Holly Holm

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raquel PenningtonMetricHolly Holm

4.10

Strikes / min

3.13

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

61%

Strike defense

55%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

0.87

62%

Takedown defense

76%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raquel PenningtonHolly Holm

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raquel Pennington(10 fights)Holly Holm(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -46.5|Blue +46.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raquel PenningtonTargetHolly Holm

By target zone

22% acc · 60%

Head

10% acc · 39%

29% acc · 10%

Body

64% acc · 52%

67% acc · 30%

Leg

40% acc · 9%

By position

25% acc · 80%

Distance

16% acc · 66%

70% acc · 18%

Clinch

65% acc · 34%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raquel Pennington rounds

even

Holly Holm rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:14

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:01

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 139

Sig Strikes

44 / 210

28.3%

Sig Str %

20%

51 / 150

Total Strikes

48 / 214

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Holly Holm	8 / 61	11 / 64	0 / 0
1	Raquel Pennington	8 / 38	10 / 40	0 / 3
2	Holly Holm	20 / 75	21 / 76	0 / 0
2	Raquel Pennington	15 / 41	22 / 48	0 / 1
3	Holly Holm	16 / 74	16 / 74	0 / 0
3	Raquel Pennington	17 / 60	19 / 62	0 / 1

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15