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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1491

Raquel PenningtonvsElizabeth PhillipsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Raquel Pennington

Red Corner

Elizabeth Phillips

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1504

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Elizabeth Phillips

oldest →

vs Valerie Letourneau · Jun 14

vs Milana Dudieva · Aug 14

vs Jessamyn Duke · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raquel PenningtonMetricElizabeth Phillips

4.10

Strikes / min

2.60

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

61%

Strike defense

58%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

0.75

62%

Takedown defense

53%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raquel PenningtonElizabeth Phillips

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raquel Pennington(10 fights)Elizabeth Phillips(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.9|Blue -13.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -266.0|Blue +266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raquel PenningtonTargetElizabeth Phillips

By target zone

55% acc · 55%

Head

26% acc · 33%

86% acc · 36%

Body

38% acc · 20%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 47%

By position

30% acc · 18%

Distance

33% acc · 60%

86% acc · 58%

Clinch

86% acc · 40%

100% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raquel Pennington rounds

even

Elizabeth Phillips rounds

Round 1Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:02

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:05

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 3Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:58

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 50

Sig Strikes

15 / 34

64%

Sig Str %

46.3%

81 / 102

Total Strikes

34 / 58

3 / 5

TDs

1 / 5

66.7%

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

5:05

Ctrl Time

6:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Elizabeth Phillips	11 / 24	13 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Raquel Pennington	13 / 22	24 / 34	1 / 2	0
2	Elizabeth Phillips	2 / 3	11 / 12	1 / 5	0
2	Raquel Pennington	15 / 18	34 / 37	1 / 1	0
3	Elizabeth Phillips	2 / 7	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Raquel Pennington	5 / 10	23 / 31	1 / 2	1

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Elizabeth Phillips

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4