Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · SUB R1

Elo1504

Elo1468

Raquel PenningtonvsAshlee Evans-SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupRaquel Pennington: Well-roundedvsAshlee Evans-Smith: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Raquel Pennington

Red Corner

Ashlee Evans-Smith

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1504

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Ashlee Evans-SmithL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sarah Moras · Sep 17

vs Bec Rawlings · Apr 18

vs Andrea Lee · Feb 19

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 20

vs Ailin Perez · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raquel PenningtonMetricAshlee Evans-Smith

4.10

Strikes / min

4.03

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

61%

Strike defense

53%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

0.95

62%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raquel PenningtonAshlee Evans-Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raquel Pennington(10 fights)Ashlee Evans-Smith(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.3|Blue -36.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.4|Blue +47.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raquel PenningtonTargetAshlee Evans-Smith

By target zone

43% acc · 60%

Head

56% acc · 45%

67% acc · 40%

Body

83% acc · 45%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

0% acc

Distance

25% acc · 9%

56% acc · 100%

Clinch

83% acc · 91%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raquel Pennington rounds

even

Ashlee Evans-Smith rounds

Round 1Ashlee Evans-Smith edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:22

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:09Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 10

Sig Strikes

11 / 16

50%

Sig Str %

68%

16 / 21

Total Strikes

25 / 33

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:22

Ctrl Time

3:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ashlee Evans-Smith	11 / 16	25 / 33	1 / 2	0
1	Raquel Pennington	5 / 10	16 / 21	1 / 2	1

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Ashlee Evans-Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9