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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1508

Raphael AssuncaovsVictor HenryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Saturday, October 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsVictor Henry: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Victor Henry wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Victor Henry at -435 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Raphael Assuncao has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Victor Henry (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Victor Henry

Blue Corner

+350

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-435

(81%)

1496

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael AssuncaoL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Marlon Moraes · Feb 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Victor Henry

oldest →

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 22

vs Tony Gravely · Mar 23

KOvs Rani Yahya · Apr 24

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Nov 24

vs Pedro Falcao · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricVictor Henry

3.22

Strikes / min

7.17

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

5.19

66%

Strike defense

48%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

1.04

78%

Takedown defense

81%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoVictor Henry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Victor Henry(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.1|Blue +12.1

Recent Form

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetVictor Henry

By target zone

62% acc · 67%

Head

27% acc · 42%

67% acc · 13%

Body

85% acc · 40%

86% acc · 20%

Leg

67% acc · 18%

By position

60% acc · 70%

Distance

43% acc · 93%

94% acc · 25%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

60% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Victor Henry rounds

Round 1Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:30

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:16

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:43

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 91

Sig Strikes

55 / 126

65%

Sig Str %

45%

78 / 110

Total Strikes

61 / 134

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:29

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Victor Henry	22 / 48	25 / 52	0 / 0
1	Raphael Assuncao	23 / 32	23 / 32	0 / 2
2	Victor Henry	15 / 27	17 / 30	0 / 0
2	Raphael Assuncao	17 / 29	35 / 48	1 / 1
3	Victor Henry	18 / 51	19 / 52	0 / 1
3	Raphael Assuncao	20 / 30	20 / 30	1 / 2

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Victor Henry

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6