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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · SUB R2

Elo1496

Elo1355

Raphael AssuncaovsVaughan LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:51

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsVaughan Lee: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Vaughan Lee

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1496

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Vaughan LeeL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs TJ Dillashaw · Jul 12

vs Motonobu Tezuka · Feb 13

vs Nam Phan · Mar 14

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 14

vs Paddy Holohan · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricVaughan Lee

3.22

Strikes / min

3.47

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.07

66%

Strike defense

70%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.81

78%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoVaughan Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Vaughan Lee(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +140.6|Blue -140.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetVaughan Lee

By target zone

25% acc · 59%

Head

20% acc · 21%

71% acc · 29%

Body

80% acc · 29%

29% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

17% acc · 35%

Distance

45% acc · 71%

0% acc

Clinch

80% acc · 29%

73% acc · 65%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Vaughan Lee rounds

Round 1Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control1:55

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:57

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 54

Sig Strikes

14 / 27

28.5%

Sig Str %

53.5%

27 / 65

Total Strikes

28 / 41

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

58%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:52

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vaughan Lee	10 / 20	24 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Raphael Assuncao	15 / 46	25 / 57	2 / 3	0
2	Vaughan Lee	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 1	0
2	Raphael Assuncao	2 / 8	2 / 8	1 / 2	1

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Vaughan Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights8