← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Raphael AssuncaovsTJ DillashawUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsTJ Dillashaw: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at +210 American odds

+$210 profit

$310 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

TJ Dillashaw

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1496

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

TJ Dillashaw

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricTJ Dillashaw

3.22

Strikes / min

5.09

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

66%

Strike defense

62%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

1.56

78%

Takedown defense

77%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoTJ Dillashaw

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetTJ Dillashaw

By target zone

27% acc · 66%

Head

18% acc · 48%

25% acc · 9%

Body

71% acc · 41%

67% acc · 25%

Leg

60% acc · 10%

By position

31% acc · 94%

Distance

26% acc · 86%

25% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 14%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

TJ Dillashaw rounds

Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:03

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:04

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:12

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 101

Sig Strikes

29 / 101

33%

Sig Str %

28%

37 / 106

Total Strikes

32 / 105

0 / 6

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

2:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ Dillashaw	7 / 29	8 / 30	1 / 1	3
1	Raphael Assuncao	10 / 25	15 / 30	0 / 2	0
2	TJ Dillashaw	8 / 32	10 / 35	1 / 2	0
2	Raphael Assuncao	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 1	1
3	TJ Dillashaw	14 / 40	14 / 40	0 / 1	0
3	Raphael Assuncao	11 / 45	11 / 45	0 / 3	0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18