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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1490

Raphael AssuncaovsRob FontUFC Prediction Result

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Saturday, July 7, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsRob Font: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rob Font has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Rob Font

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1496

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Rob FontL2 streak

oldest →

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Oct 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Feb 25

vs David Martinez · Sep 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricRob Font

3.22

Strikes / min

5.11

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

66%

Strike defense

57%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.70

78%

Takedown defense

37%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoRob Font

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Rob Font(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.5|Blue -5.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetRob Font

By target zone

42% acc · 76%

Head

11% acc · 60%

57% acc · 7%

Body

60% acc · 30%

60% acc · 17%

Leg

29% acc · 10%

By position

38% acc · 67%

Distance

16% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

71% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Rob Font rounds

Round 1Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:15

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control2:16

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 120

Sig Strikes

20 / 122

44.3%

Sig Str %

16.3%

93 / 161

Total Strikes

20 / 122

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rob Font	10 / 61	10 / 61	0 / 0
1	Raphael Assuncao	14 / 41	14 / 41	0 / 0
2	Rob Font	5 / 25	5 / 25	0 / 0
2	Raphael Assuncao	15 / 34	34 / 55	1 / 1
3	Rob Font	5 / 36	5 / 36	0 / 0
3	Raphael Assuncao	25 / 45	45 / 65	1 / 1

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Rob Font

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21