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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1488

Raphael AssuncaovsPedro MunhozUFC Prediction Result

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Saturday, February 22, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsPedro Munhoz: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pedro Munhoz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Raphael Assuncao has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Pedro Munhoz

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+248

(29%)

1496

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Pedro MunhozL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Dec 21

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 23

vs Marlon Vera · Aug 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricPedro Munhoz

3.22

Strikes / min

5.38

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

6.29

66%

Strike defense

55%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.48

78%

Takedown defense

82%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoPedro Munhoz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.1|Blue -7.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetPedro Munhoz

By target zone

43% acc · 73%

Head

11% acc · 18%

67% acc · 8%

Body

57% acc · 36%

79% acc · 19%

Leg

65% acc · 45%

By position

47% acc · 87%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

25% acc · 1%

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Pedro Munhoz rounds

Round 1Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:57

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control0:09

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 206

Sig Strikes

33 / 100

48.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

116 / 225

Total Strikes

41 / 109

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pedro Munhoz	13 / 43	13 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Raphael Assuncao	40 / 78	40 / 78	0 / 0	0
2	Pedro Munhoz	9 / 25	15 / 32	0 / 0	1
2	Raphael Assuncao	23 / 45	37 / 62	2 / 2	0
3	Pedro Munhoz	11 / 32	13 / 34	0 / 1	0
3	Raphael Assuncao	37 / 83	39 / 85	1 / 1	0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights20