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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1353

Raphael AssuncaovsMike EastonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsMike Easton: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Mike Easton wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Easton at -300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Easton enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Easton (53.5%).
Mike Easton has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Mike Easton

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1496

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Mike EastonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Papazian · Jan 12

vs Ivan Menjivar · Jul 12

vs Brad Pickett · Apr 13

vs TJ Dillashaw · Jan 14

vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricMike Easton

3.22

Strikes / min

3.51

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

66%

Strike defense

61%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.75

78%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoMike Easton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Mike Easton(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +142.3|Blue -142.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetMike Easton

By target zone

24% acc · 49%

Head

6% acc · 23%

50% acc · 11%

Body

21% acc · 10%

88% acc · 40%

Leg

87% acc · 67%

By position

32% acc · 79%

Distance

19% acc · 97%

75% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Mike Easton rounds

Round 1Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:44

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:09

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:30

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 156

Sig Strikes

30 / 155

35.7%

Sig Str %

18.7%

60 / 159

Total Strikes

34 / 159

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:23

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Easton	10 / 56	10 / 56	0 / 0
1	Raphael Assuncao	20 / 50	21 / 51	0 / 1
2	Mike Easton	12 / 55	13 / 56	0 / 2
2	Raphael Assuncao	23 / 59	23 / 59	0 / 0
3	Mike Easton	8 / 44	11 / 47	0 / 1
3	Raphael Assuncao	14 / 47	16 / 49	0 / 5

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Mike Easton

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7