← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1369

Raphael AssuncaovsMatthew LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:50

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsMatthew Lopez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Matthew Lopez wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Lopez at +310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Lopez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Matthew Lopez

Blue Corner

-370

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1496

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Matthew LopezL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16

vs Mitch Gagnon · Dec 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18

vs Brad Katona · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricMatthew Lopez

3.22

Strikes / min

3.13

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

66%

Strike defense

55%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

3.32

78%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoMatthew Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.3|Blue -126.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetMatthew Lopez

By target zone

20% acc · 52%

Head

24% acc · 47%

50% acc · 13%

Body

63% acc · 35%

84% acc · 35%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

29% acc · 98%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Matthew Lopez rounds

Round 1Matthew Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 154

Sig Strikes

34 / 93

30%

Sig Str %

38%

48 / 156

Total Strikes

36 / 95

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matthew Lopez	18 / 43	18 / 43	1 / 1
1	Raphael Assuncao	18 / 73	19 / 74	0 / 0
2	Matthew Lopez	11 / 39	13 / 41	0 / 2
2	Raphael Assuncao	20 / 55	21 / 56	0 / 0
3	Matthew Lopez	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 1
3	Raphael Assuncao	8 / 26	8 / 26	0 / 0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Matthew Lopez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6