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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Marlon Moraes won · SUB R1
Elo1496
Raphael Assuncao
Elo1419
Marlon Moraes

Raphael AssuncaovsMarlon MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Marlon Moraes won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:17

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Marlon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Raphael Assuncao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Raphael Assuncao has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao
Red Corner
VS
Marlon Moraes
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
1496
Elo
1419
44
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao
oldest →
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19
L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20
L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21
W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22
L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23
latest
Marlon MoraesL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20
L
KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20
L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21
L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricMarlon Moraes
3.22
Strikes / min
3.37
2.50
Strikes absorbed / min
4.53
66%
Strike defense
54%
1.65
TDs / 15 min
0.87
78%
Takedown defense
46%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1628 vs 1545Strikes47.1 vs 25.8Takedowns1.0 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.15 vs 0.25Form0.9 vs 0.8
Raphael AssuncaoMarlon Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +76.2|Blue -76.2
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -36.0|Blue +36.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetMarlon Moraes

By target zone

1
10% acc · 50%
Head
8
47% acc · 80%
0
Body
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 50%
Leg
2
50% acc · 20%

By position

2
17% acc · 100%
Distance
7
39% acc · 70%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
3
60% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Raphael Assuncao rounds
0
even
1
Marlon Moraes rounds
Round 1Marlon Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:15Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 12
Sig Strikes
10 / 23
16%
Sig Str %
43%
3 / 13
Total Strikes
12 / 25
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marlon Moraes10 / 2312 / 250 / 01
1Raphael Assuncao2 / 123 / 130 / 00

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights19

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11